Australian Open preview: Can anyone stop Novak Djokovic and Iga Swiatek?
Djokovic sits one shy of Rafael Nadal’s men’s record, and goes into the first major of the year as the overwhelming favourite to claim a stunning 10th title at Melbourne. Following his successful return to Australia in Adelaide, his path has been made somewhat easier by a leg injury to Carlos Alcaraz, which means that the Australian Open has now been missing the world No.1 for two years in a row.
Djokovic is unbeaten on these shores since 2018, winning 34 matches in a row. As it stands, it’ll be a massive shock if that run comes to an end over the course of the next two weeks, which has been helped by his incredibly favourable draw.
He opens his tournament against Roberto Carballes Baena, and the only seeds who could be in his way before the quarter-finals are Pablo Carreno-Busta, Grigor Dimitrov and Alex de Minaur, who frankly, should pose little threat for Djokovic.
But home favourite Nick Kyrgios could be lurking in the last eight, which would be a jaw-dropping affair. The pair met in last year’s Wimbledon final, which Djokovic won in four sets.
It’s hard to predict which Kyrgios will ever turn up, especially as he hasn’t played a match this season. But in front of a crowd which will undoubtedly be on his side, the Aussie could cause Djokovic big problems. Even though it still remains unlikely that he will topple the 35-year-old, his sheer unpredictability makes him a dangerous opponent.
That is if Kyrgios makes it to the quarter-finals. A tasty third-round clash against No.9 seed Holger Rune beckons, which could be one of the matches of the early rounds. The phenomenally talented Dane soared up the rankings towards the end of last season, in which he won the Paris Masters, beating Djokovic in a thrilling final.
No.5 seed Andrey Rublev is the second-highest seed in Djokovic’s quarter and could meet Kyrgios or Rune in the fourth round.
There are no two ways about it, Djokovic has been given a wonderful draw, making his life a lot more simple. As if he needed any more help.
THE REIGNING CHAMPION
Rafael Nadal (36) claimed his 21st Grand Slam title in Melbourne last year after producing one of the greatest comebacks in the history of the sport against Daniil Medvedev in the final. However, Nadal is coming into this Australian Open in dreadful form.
The Spaniard looks to be clear of any injury problems but is on a run of just one win in his last seven games. He has played two matches this year, losing to both Cameron Norrie and De Minaur at the United Cup.
His form is a huge issue, and perhaps his age is catching up to him. Unfortunately for the Spaniard, his draw hasn't been so kind, so will have to hit his straps quickly.
Talented Brit Jack Draper is his first-round opponent, which is as tough as it gets for the No.1 seed. He then could have a tricky second round against Brandon Nakashima.
Frances Tiafoe - who knocked him out of the US Open last year - may be waiting in round four, while the player he beat in last year’s final - Medvedev - is the man he could come up against in the quarters.
Medvedev struggled to find his best performances in 2022, but if he can reach the lofty heights he hit when he became US Open champion in 2021, he is probably the second favourite for the title behind Djokovic.
The Russian is a hard court expert, and has gone toe-to-toe with Djokovic before on this surface. However, playing against Djokovic in Australia is a different proposition entirely, which he will be well aware of. He was trounced by him 6-3 6-4 just over a week ago in the Adelaide semi-finals, and in 2021, he was defeated in straight sets in the Australian Open final.
So while Nadal is a man out of form, so is Medvedev, which potentially opens this quarter of the draw up for the likes of Tiafoe, Denis Shapovalov and Hubert Hurkacz.
Despite being an all-time great, not much will be expected of Nadal this tournament, and he will have done well if he manages to reach the semi-final. But as we have learnt so often, rule Rafael Nadal out at your peril.
AN OPENING FOR OTHERS?
With no Alcaraz, Nadal and Medvedev not at their best and only one Djokovic, a number of players will be licking their lips at the opportunity to go deep into the tournament.
No.2 seed Casper Ruud reached the finals of Roland Garros, the US Open and the ATP Tour Finals in 2022, but not many have spoken about him making much of an impact in Melbourne. He has shown that he is a man for all surfaces and not just a clay courter.
He is drawn in the same quarter as Matteo Berrettini, who has an intriguing opening-round match against Andy Murray. The three-time major winner will be ruing his luck that he has to come up against the big-serving Italian, who tends to perform well at Grand Slams.
Another man in this section is Taylor Fritz. Could this be a big tournament for the American?
He reached the fourth round here last year, as well as the Wimbledon last eight. His victory in Indian Wells at the start of 2022 was a career-defining moment.
This should be a surface that suits him nicely, and he will be looking to reach his first major semi-final. He helped the United States win the inaugural United Cup at the start of January, so he will fancy his chances.
Alexander Zverev also makes his Grand Slam comeback after suffering a horrific ligament injury in Paris last year, but he has been looking rusty and not at his best yet, so he won't be getting his hopes up.
Felix Auger-Aliassime ended 2022 as one of the most in-form players, winning three tournaments on the bounce as well as the Davis Cup. The Canadian has bundles of ability and will be looking to continue his momentum.
Stefanos Tsitsipas is also in his quarter. The former French Open finalist perhaps hasn’t developed as many might have expected and failed to string a consistent run of results together last year. But he has more experience than a lot of his younger rivals, and his forehand can be a real weapon on this surface. He has a good chance to start the new year well.
Cameron Norrie and Jannik Sinner are definitely players to watch out for. The former lost to Richard Gasquet in the Auckland final just days before the Australian Open, but is a consistent and reliable baseliner, and beat both Nadal and Fritz at the United Cup.
Sinner, despite being a touch inconsistent at times, can be a force of nature with his huge hitting and groundstrokes. He has reached the quarter-finals at every Grand Slam at just 21 years old, with three of them coming last year. He could be a scary opponent for anyone if fully dialled in.
POTENTIAL MATCHUPS BASED ON SEEDING
Quarter-finals:
Nadal (1) vs Medvedev (7)
Tsitsipas (3) vs Auger-Aliassime (6)
Djokovic (4) vs Rublev (5)
Ruud (2) vs Fritz (8)
Semi-finals:
Nadal (1) vs Tsitsipas (3)
Djokovic (4) vs Ruud (2)
THE WOMAN TO BEAT
Three-time major winner Iga Swiatek (21) goes into the Australian Open as the firm favourite in the women’s side. The current Roland Garros and US Open champion had a mesmerising 2022, winning eight titles as well as firmly cementing herself as the world No.1.
She is currently far and away the best in the world, and her win at Flushing Meadows, as well as her performance in the final against Ons Jabeur, made clear that she is a powerhouse everywhere she goes now.
She reached the semi-final last year but lost to the woman who would go on to become champion, Ashleigh Barty. This time, the Australian is not here, so she will be chomping at the bit to add another Grand Slam to her collection.
Swiatek is in a tricky section of the draw though and will start her tournament against talented German Jule Niemeier. She then could face former US Open champion Bianca Andreescu in the third round, with Wimbledon champion Elena Rybakina or last year’s Australian Open finalist Danielle Collins waiting in the fourth round.
18-year-old Coco Gauff may be her quarter-final opponent, but Swiatek has a 5-0 head-to-head record against her, so that contest may not be as difficult as it looks on paper.
Gauff has a potential second-round match against Emma Raducanu in the offing, which is an exciting prospect. However, there are question marks over the former US Open champion's fitness following her retirement in the round of 16 in Auckland.
Paula Badosa was set to be in this section but had to pull out with injury.
Despite not being quite as clear-cut a favourite as Djokovic is in the men's draw, Swiatek is still definitely the woman to beat.
WHO ELSE CAN TOPPLE HER?
Ons Jabeur goes in search of her first Grand Slam trophy, which would make her the first Arab to claim a major title. She reached the Wimbledon and US Open finals last year but was unable to get over the line.
The world No.2 is one of the most entertaining players around, with an incredible variety of shots in her arsenal. After a slow start in the final at Flushing Meadows against Swiatek last year, she began to show her A-game towards the end of the second set and prove that she can cause the world's best player some problems.
Jabeur could face Beatriz Haddad Maia in the fourth round, and then No.5 seed Aryna Sabalenka in the quarters. However, Belinda Bencic will have something to say about that.
The Swiss just won the Adelaide International 2 title after beating Daria Kasatkina in the final, which propelled her back into the top 10 in the world, so her preparations have been perfect.
Caroline Garcia is ready to make waves at a Grand Slam after having an exquisite second half of 2022. She rediscovered her very best form which made many see her as a potential Grand Slam winner, winning the WTA Finals and climbing to No.4 in the world rankings.
On her day, Garcia has the ability to beat anyone in the draw, which makes her such a compelling watch. 2021 US Open finalist Leylah Fernandez is a potential second-round opponent, which would be a mouthwatering match-up.
No.16 seed Anett Kontaveit, No.8 seed Kasatkina and No.9 seed Veronika Kudermetova are others waiting in that quarter.
Jessica Pegula is another one of the leading contenders, and she will be coming in knowing that she can beat Swiatek. The American thumped her 6-2 6-2 in the United Cup, making a real statement ahead of the Australian Open.
An American hasn't clinched a Grand Slam trophy since Sofia Kenin won this competition back in 2020, so there is even more impetus for Pegula.
In her quarter of the draw is two-time Wimbledon champion Petra Kvitova, and No.10 seed and fellow American Madison Keys - who reached the semi-finals here last year.
Keys could face Pegula in the quarter-finals, but that is if she can get past Greek Maria Sakkari.
POTENTIAL MATCHUPS BASED ON SEEDING
Quarter-finals:
Swiatek (1) vs Gauff (7)
Pegula (3) vs Sakkari (6)
Jabeur (2) vs Sabalenka (5)
Garcia (4) vs Kasatkina (8)
Semi-finals:
Swiatek (1) vs Pegula (3)
Jabeur (2) vs Garcia (4)