In the midst of the Heat's slump, Tyler Herro could become the leader Miami has been waiting for
In five seasons, Tyler Herro has already seen a lot. An NBA finals appearance in his rookie season, which was during COVID, but one that was undeniably successful, with the added bonus of a significant contribution in the playoffs. Then a second chance at the big stage in 2023, which he didn't play in because of an unfortunate hand fracture at the start of the playoffs.
But he already had a trophy - the 2022 Sixth Man of the Year - when his stint on the bench to boost the Miami Heat's second unit was a resounding success. A victorious season during which Miami came within a game of another NBA final, which seemed to have allowed Herro, after a half-baked sophomore season, to finally establish himself as the future of his franchise.
But over the last two years, this state of affairs has been seriously called into question. Not that he was sub-par since he stabilised around an average of 20 points without a hitch, but his impact was frankly questionable. The fact that the Heat had to go through the play-ins to find their way to the playoffs in 2023 and that they reached the finals without one of their triggers, clearly made people start to doubt.
The same thing happened last season. Once again, the team had to go through play-in to snatch the eigth seed in the playoffs. But this time, the result was an elimination in the first round against the eventual champions. But the individual performance (16.8 points, 5.4 assists, 38.5% shooting, 34.9% three-point shooting, 2.8 turnovers) left something to be desired. What's more, a season-ending injury led to fears that he wouldn't even be on the floor at this time of year.
And that brings us to the first concern: his physique. More than 100 games missed in the regular season since his arrival in the NBA. As early as his rookie season, he suffered a number of ankle problems. The last financial year was particularly complicated in this area, with only 42 games played in the regular season, making the task all the more difficult.
However, these factors need to be tempered. If he could be considered his team's offensive leader in the last playoffs, facing the Celtics without Jimmy Butler or Terry Rozier II was like a suicide mission. So much so, in fact, that when the Heat took a game off in the series, the champagne was almost popping in Florida - it looked like the chronicle of a defeat foretold.
As a result of the above, it's hard to fault Herro for his physical fragility, as his team was so badly affected in that area. But the fact remains that when a player raises such high hopes in his rookie season due to being the 13th overall pick in the draft, he is inevitably scrutinised far more than the average player - people wait for the explosion that will make him a star.
In that respect, perhaps he's on the right track. The start of the season has confirmed his talent and established him as a top scorer. Averaging 24.9 points on 50.9% shooting and 47.9% from three-point range, it's fair to say that he's hot right now. What's more, he's now averaging more than five assists for the first time (5.3) in a team in desperate need of playmaking.
And he backed that up with a majestic performance against the Pistons on Tuesday night: 40 points on 10/17 three-pointers (a career-high), enough to send the NBA world into a frenzy of highlights and heat checks. The problem was that, despite this record, the Heat ended up losing the game.
We won't go into the unfortunate circumstances of this defeat, but what is certain is that it cannot be blamed on the Heat. Nevertheless, the facts are there: Herro is the Heat's best player this season and the offensive leader of a team that, on paper, is playing in the top six in the East. While nothing is lost on that front, going 4-6 after ten games is a real shame.
That's because all the wins have come against teams with losing records and sit at the bottom of the standings, apart from the one against Minnesota, which was a close call and what some thought would inevitably kick-start Miami's season. That was not the case against Detroit, and you have to wonder whether Herro's attacking impact is enough to compensate for his known weaknesses in defence.
On a crude level, his +/- of -2.7 gives an initial clue. We know full well that he'll never be an NBA All-Defensive Team, but that's not the point. Yet when you build a backcourt, it has to be balanced. In that respect, his partnership with Rozier II makes little sense defensively. The decision to pair them up was a late one for Eric Spoelstra, who seems to have his hands tied, as it would be hard to find another guard in the squad with the shoulders for a starting spot, with the possible exception of Josh Richardson.
A team renowned for its defence, Miami is currently struggling with the 14th-highest defensive rating and is 12th in terms of points conceded in the paint despite the presence of Bam Adebayo, a finalist for Defensive Player of the Year last season and still one of the favourites for the award this season. Adebayo was destined to become the boss of the franchise with the predictable decline of the aging Butler, but it's clear that Herro is trying to slip into the role.
This raises a legitimate question: will he make it to the All-Star Game? At most, six guards from the East could be heading to San Francisco in February. But on the one hand, if Miami is still languishing in the play-in zone at the time of the pick, the door will only be slightly ajar. And if we start listing Donovan Mitchell, Darius Garland, Derrick White, Jalen Brunson, Tyrese Haliburton, Tyrese Maxey, Trae Young, Cade Cunningham, LaMelo Ball and Damian Lillard, that's a lot of contenders, probably too many for the star to be acquired this year. Unless, that is...
Unless what we've seen so far is just the beginning. The beginning of the blaze of a player who is often considered a firecracker, but who has gradually grown in stature. His defence is undoubtedly a moot point, as no opposing guard has put up a real attacking performance against Miami this season. And his mocked words at the start of the 2021/2022 season come back to mind.
"Luka (Doncic), Trae (Young), Ja (Morant), all those guys, I feel like my name should be in that category as well." It's not, but that's the point. Only, that phrase is now three years old, and while it's getting closer, it's still missing. The Heat's future depends on a Adebayo - Herro duo at the top, and the latter is going to have to turn a corner all season, and not just over ten games, for Miami to remain contenders. Otherwise... Watch out for an explosion at the trade deadline.
