Super Eagles soaring high as quarter-finals arrive but can Nigeria win AFCON 2023?
The Super Eagles were untouchable at the group stages and laid an early marker winning all three games. They dominated Egypt and breezed past Sudan and Guinea Bissau. All their effort went into vain in the round of 16 after surprisingly losing to Tunisia.
This time in Ivory Coast, the fortunes of the Super Eagles are different. To begin with, they’ve made the quarter-finals which is a step in the right direction.
Concerning the playing style and results, it’s been the polar opposite to the last AFCON. Jose Peseiro’s Nigeria side seem to get stronger with each passing game. After their opening-day draw with Equatorial Guinea, the three-time AFCON winners have since gone on to beat hosts Ivory Coast, Guinea Bissau, and Cameroon.
Their last game against Cameroon was by far their best - a dominant display that saw Nigeria assert themselves right from the onset and throughout the game. After that game, the confidence in the camp of the Super Eagles is at an all-time high not just because they’re playing well, but also because of other results.
With defending champions Senegal, record winners Egypt, and 2022 World Cup semi-finalists Morocco all knocked out, the Super Eagles will see this as a chance to soar high.
A golden opportunity
The remaining eight teams in Ivory Coast represent a unique set. They represent the paradigm shift in African football that has seen the lower-ranked teams take a seat at the high table in recent years. None of the top five ranked African teams made it to the quarterfinals this year.
Nigeria is ranked sixth on the continent and is technically the best team remaining in the tournament. That comes with extra pressure, especially for a Nigeria side that were viewed as outsiders at the start of the tournament.
Jose Peseiro, who has divided opinion in Nigeria with his performance so far, doesn’t want to look beyond the possibilities after the Angola game.
“I believe in my team. We believe in our team. But the quarters is our second final. You play the first final before the second final. You want to play the third final and the fourth final,” he said in the press conference before the game.
The first final was the must-win game against hosts Ivory Coast. The second final is the game against Angola. The third and fourth finals will be the semi-finals and final respectively.
Given his experience, Peseiro wants to absorb the pressure and take it a game at a time, but you get the sense that this is a real opportunity for the West African country to win their first AFCON since 2013.
“Musa told us how they won the 2013 AFCON. He’s creating the same environment and everyone is hungry. He always wants us to push on and achieve that same thing,” Alex Iwobi said at the press conference.
“Musa told us that they don’t look at the outside noise. We want to do it again. We will start with the quarter-final and give a hundred per cent,” the Fulham midfielder added.
From the players' side, they’re determined to win the trophy. Captain of the Nigerian side William Troost-Ekong says they have their eye on the prize.
“We are not satisfied yet because everyone knows we came to win the trophy,” the defender said.
If Nigeria are to go past Angola, up next for them will be either Cape Verde or South Africa, two teams you’d expect the Super Eagles to beat.
BBC’s Oluwashina Okeleji told Flashscore that Nigeria’s success in the tournament is a result of a mentality shift.
“It’s been a determination on the path of the players. There’s been a shift in the mentality because coming into the tournament morale was low.
"The team was criticised after the Equatoria Guinea draw but the togetherness was still there. The players are well motivated and the manager has also adjusted tactically to make life difficult for opponents.”
Optimism is very high in the camp of not just the Nigerian players but also journalists and fans as well.
“With how we are going game by game, I think we can go all the way. The team started growing from the first game and they've been improving,” Pooja, who is a photojournalist in Ivory Coast, told Flashscore.
Norra Wilbor is supporting the Super Eagles from Nigeria and says: “The team should have the right mentality and not get ahead of themselves. There are a lot of praises being showered on them at the moment especially here in Nigeria, but with the right discipline and mind focus, bringing the trophy home shouldn't be a hard thing to do.”
An impenetrable defence
One of the reasons Nigeria are still in the competition is how resolute their defence has been so far. So far, the Super Eagles have conceded just one goal which is the least by any side. Their Expected Goals (xG) conceded tally is 1.6 which is the lowest at the tournament. Peseiro’s men have only conceded nine shots on target which is the third-lowest overall, and second-lowest among the quarter-finalists.
All indications are that Nigeria’s solid defensive showing in Ivory Coast hasn’t been by chance. After their first game, Peseiro introduced a 3-4-3 system that is yet to be breached defensively. Against Cameroon in the round of 16, the three-back of Nigeria limited Rigobert Song’s men to zero shots on target in more than 100 minutes.
Ayodeji Adegbenro, a Nigerian sports administrator, expects Peseiro to keep the same system against Angola and beyond.
"I think that we should just stick to the 3-4-3. If it's not broken don't fix it. The 3-4-3 has worked very well. So far in this tournament, we have only conceded one goal in four games so it's given us defensive solidity.
"I would like us to stick to it till the end of the tournament."
Though Nigeria’s defence has been impressive, there is the feeling there is more room for improvement when it comes to the attack. The Super Eagles only scored two goals in a game for the first time this tournament against Cameroon and before that game failed to take their chances.
Victor Osimhen has been the biggest culprit scoring just one goal despite accumulating the biggest xG tally of 2.78 at this AFCON.
For context, the tournament's top scorer Emilio Nsue has five goals from an xG of 2.68. The Napoli striker came into the tournament with heavy expectations on his shoulders as the CAF player of the year. However, Oluwashina Okeleji believes his efforts are being appreciated by Nigerians.
“I don’t think people are bothered about him not scoring goals because they know what he is capable of. He has been a menace to defences.
"He has carried the team forward and defended well. People are praising him for his work ethic.
“It will be nice to see him score goals but if he keeps on doing what he’s doing and Nigeria wins I don’t think anyone will be worried.
"Once he contributes to the team winning he will be fine because no Nigeria even remembers the top scorer from 2013. The trophy is what matters most,” he added.
Despite scoring just one goal, Osimhen has created five chances, won one penalty, won two tackles, and made six recoveries. He has never stopped running and pressing defences.
Dutch coach, Jo Bonfrère, who was in the dugout when Nigeria reached the 2000 AFCON final believes Osimhen’s lack of goals is evidence of the intensity of football being played in this tournament.
“The intensity of the game and the expectation will make it very difficult and or unlikely for big stars to be the ones to grab the headlines, and Nigeria will have to play as a collective unit rather than rely on individual moments in this clash,” he told Flashscore.
So far Nigeria has operated like a well-drilled and functioning unit and with the path cleared now, the Super Eagles are poised to make history again. When they last won it in 2013, it came as a surprise to the rest of the continent but if they are to repeat that feat this time, it’ll likely be more expected and deserving.