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Data-driven Player of the Month: Lautaro Martinez - A bulldozer who helps by working backwards

11Hacks / Filip Novák
Lautaro Martinez was a key player for Inter in May
Lautaro Martinez was a key player for Inter in MayProfimedia
In May, Inter Milan played eight games. In Serie A, it was all about qualification to the top four and rejoining the Champions League and in the top European competition, the semi-final double-header against old rival AC Milan was on the agenda, alongside the domestic cup final against Fiorentina.

And the Simone Inzaghi-led team stood up to the tough test. No club could unseat them from the top four in the last round, the cup run ended with them defending the Coppa Italia, and in a famous derby enhanced by the Champions League atmosphere, progress to the final was a clear-cut affair.

One of the main architects of these successes was Argentine striker Lautaro Martinez (25), who finished the month with a record of eight games, seven goals and three assists. He was particularly successful in the Coppa Italia final, in which he lead his team to a 2-1 win with two accurate goals in the first half.

The Serie A standings
The Serie A standingsFlashscore

Although he did not become the expected mainstay of Argentina at the World Cup in Qatar, he did perform well throughout the season in Serie A. He caused problems for defences, especially with his excellent movement, choice of space for finishing and shooting activity.

Only Osimhen was better

In the expected goals metric, which assesses the quality of a player's attempts, only Napoli's Victor Osimhen (24) was better. While Martinez averaged a 62% chance of scoring in the match, the Nigerian superstar even got to 77%.

Martinez also had an elite result in the number of shots per game, with an average of 3.8 shots on goal. He had to bow down again only to Osimhen and his 4.2 attempts. While Martinez may have seduced the attention of the footballing public to his side in May, it is certainly not impossible that we will look in detail at his offensive rival at some point in the future. The only question is whether it will be in the context of the same competition.

Given the sheer volume of chances for Martinez, he has amassed a total of 20.35 expected goals, while actually managing to score on 21 occasions. That was enough to finish second in the Serie A goalscorers table, and you can probably guess for yourself who. The Argentine speedster was deprived of a bigger supply of goals by finishing.

He converted 18% of his shots, which is still an above-average result (only 30% of the other nine were better), but the best finishers are a bit higher. At the same time, it has to be said that in the context of such a huge number of shots from good areas, this is something to wave a hand over. It is a good example of the conception already believed in the analytical community that the ability to get good chances regularly is more important than having fantastic kicking technique.

Martinez' club and country statistics
Martinez' club and country statisticsFlashscore

Interestingly, although Martinez is only 174 centimetres tall, he is perhaps surprisingly capable in the air. In league comparisons, he gets to a significantly above average number of aerial duels and only 10% of the other forwards are won with a higher percentage of success.

Of his 117 shots on goal, he has sent 64 with his powerful right foot, 26 with his left and 27 with his head. He was a bit unlucky in the finishing department, though, and at 4.14 xG he only hit it twice.

No typical striker

He is definitely not a poacher, the typical killer waiting for his chance in the box, but he is also used extensively in the midfield. His average height of touches with the ball is at 67.5 metres, while for example his teammate Romelu Lukaku (29) is at 72. Osimhen and Rasmus Hojlund (20) operates even closer to the opponent's goal - both even two metres higher. And few other lone strikers can distribute such a large number of passes in the space between the halfway line and the final third.

In an advanced data model that calculates how much a player's touches on the ball increase a team's chances of scoring, Lautaro ranks in the top 10% of players at his position. Not surprisingly, in a sample of the past four seasons, he ranks among the strikers with the best final pass in Serie A. This season, he has been slightly less successful in this regard and only slightly above average, but his numbers are likely to return to previous levels in the future.

Lautaro Martinez's record in the 2022/23 season
Lautaro Martinez's record in the 2022/23 seasonFlashscore

The data models also show how invested he is in defending. He has a high number of defensive actions per game, particularly in the form of pressing duels and those involving the midfield. At the same time, he manages to win a decent number of balls in them.

In order for Inter to have a chance of beating the favoured Manchester City in the Champions League final, they will probably have to combine their undeniable footballing skills with aggressiveness and physical performances at the edge of their capabilities and it is the combination of Martinez's skills thst will once again be the key to eventual success.