Euro 2024 draw analysis: How the tournament will pan out according to the world rankings

The groups aren't yet fully complete, with three remaining spots to be taken by three play-off winners, but we've given those spots to the team from each path that's highest in the world rankings. 

We've done the same in determining who the four best third-placed teams that advance to the Round of 16 will be, choosing the four teams highest in the world rankings that aren't one of the two highest-ranked sides in their group.

If every knockout match in the tournament is to be won by the higher-ranked side, this is how Euro 2024 will pan out.

For the record, the world rankings were not used to determine the pot seedings for the draw - they were based on qualifying records.

Perhaps the biggest takeaway from our simulation is that France and England, the two tournament favourites, will end up on the same side of the draw if they both win their groups. As a result, they would meet in the semis rather than the final.

Belgium, who may well face Croatia in a mouth-watering Round of 16 tie, will also be in that half if they win their group, meaning it's highly likely that the three highest European teams in the world rankings will be on the same side of the bracket. 

That would create a huge opportunity for a team that ends up on the other half of the draw to reach the final. The Netherlands will most likely be the highest-ranked nation on that side, but going by recent form, Portugal will perhaps be the strongest.

Hosts Germany will be relieved to know they're likely to avoid France and England until the final if they can win their group, but their route is unlikely to be an easy one nonetheless, with a Round of 16 clash with Denmark and a quarter-final against Spain probable. 

Moving away from the heavyweight nations, Ukraine can fancy their chances of escaping their group if they can win their play-off matches, while Turkey could well make the knockout stages for the first time since 2008. 

All in all, it's a draw that's set to pit arguably the tournament's two strongest sides, France and England, against one another in the semis, meaning that Spain, Portugal, Germany and the Netherlands have a much better chance of reaching the final than you would perhaps expect.

Although we've based our simulation on the official FIFA world rankings, don't discount a dark horse emerging from one of the groups and going deep in the tournament. The rankings aren't everything after all.

View the groups and full schedule here.