How can Slovakia beat Belgium in their Group E opener?

Strong set pieces

Slovakia managed to qualify for the European Championship for the third consecutive time by finishing second behind Portugal in a group that also included Luxembourg, Iceland, Bosnia & Herzegovina, and Liechtenstein. Although they lost twice to Portugal, they remained unbeaten in their other eight matches (W7 D1). 

One of Slovakia's key strengths is their proficiency with set pieces. In the EURO 2024 qualifiers, they scored more goals from corner situations than any other team (5). Only Portugal and Poland attempted more shots from corners, with Slovakia making 23.1% of their attempts from corner kicks - second only to Serbia, who attempted 24.1% of their shots after a corner. Facing Belgium, Slovakia encounters a team that conceded only four goals in the qualifiers, but one of which was from a corner (the 0-1 home loss against Austria. 

Player to watch

Surprisingly, the most valuable player for Slovakia in the European Championship qualifiers was a defender: David Hancko, who plays for Feyenoord in the Netherlands. Hancko led his team in goal involvements, scoring two goals and providing three assists. Moreover, no defender created more chances in the qualifiers than Hancko, who, along with Théo Hernández and Dani Carvajal, created seventeen chances.

Hancko also had an impressive season in the Dutch Eredivisie. He led the league in both passes and progressive carries. Additionally, only two players recorded more ball recoveries than Hancko. He was also the defender with the most shots and touches in the opposition box in the Eredivisie during the 2023-24 season.

Belgium’s Achilles’ heel

Belgium once boasted a defence that struck fear into their opponents, but nowadays, the situation has reversed. Their past defensive lineup included players like Vincent Kompany during his time at Manchester City, the formidable duo of Jan Vertonghen and Toby Alderweireld at Tottenham Hotspur, and the exceptional goalkeeper Thibaut Courtois.

While Jan Vertonghen remains in the current EURO squad, he is now 37 years old and likely to miss the first group game due to an injury. Injuries are the main concern for manager Domenico Tedesco. In their last friendly against Luxembourg, Thomas Meunier left the field with a hamstring problem, and Axel Witsel played only 45 minutes as a precaution. Additionally, Rennes defender Arthur Theate is dealing with an ankle injury.

This leaves Tedesco with just four fully fit defenders in his squad: Wout Faes, Zeno Debast, Timothy Castagne, and Maxim De Cuyper. However, the latter two are more suited to wingback roles rather than traditional defensive positions.

Perhaps the biggest disappointment for Belgium is the absence of Thibaut Courtois from the current squad. Wolfsburg's goalkeeper, Koen Casteels, will be the first choice in the net and while the 31-year-old Casteels is a capable goalkeeper, he is not Courtois. 

Casteels conceded 37 goals (excluding own goals) from 36.9 Expected Goals on Target (xGoT) last season in the Bundesliga, with a save percentage of 66.7%. In contrast, Courtois hasn't conceded more than his xGoT since the 2015-16 season (-0.22), averaging 3.2 goals prevented per league season since then and maintaining a save percentage of at least 75% in his last four seasons.

Courtois' impact is especially pronounced in major international tournaments, where he has repeatedly saved his country. At Euros and World Cups, Courtois has prevented a total of 9.3 goals for Belgium (19 goals conceded, excluding own goals, from 28.3 xGoT – 0.4 per game), with a remarkable save percentage of 80%.