Old rivals France and Belgium meet once again in last-16 tie at EURO 2024
Didier Deschamps may well have decided that Belgium were not such a bad opponent after all. Indeed, they are by far the team Les Bleus have faced the most times in their history: 75 times, well ahead of Switzerland and Italy on 39. It is also the nation against which the French have won the most, with 26 victories, and against which they have their best record in major tournaments.
Four matches, four wins and a 1-0 semi-final win at the 2018 World Cup, which will always remain a trauma for the Red Devils and their former goalkeeper Thibaut Courtois.
It all comes flooding back
So the time has come for revenge. Kevin De Bruyne's team are more ready than ever to make amends, having finished a disappointing second in the group phase, as did France, who did not finish top of their group for the first time under Deschamps.
In the end, neither side sparkled during the first round of this European Championship. The clash between these two old European cousins will see the two teams with the lowest ratios of shots converted into goals of the 16 that progressed.
4.2% is the proportion of French and Belgian attempts that ended up in the back of the net, i.e. two goals for every 48 shots. It is also worth remembering that Deschamps' men scored thanks to an Austrian own goal and a Kylian Mbappe penalty against Poland, while Belgium's goals came only against Romania, through Youri Tielemans and De Bruyne.
Belgian and French fans had their heads in their hands more than once during the group phase. Not because their team couldn't get possession of the ball, but because they didn't really know what to do with it.
France took 113 touches inside their opponents' penalty area during the first round, their highest total ever, including 57 in their match against Poland, a new record since Opta began analysing the Euros in 1980. Belgium, meanwhile, are in fourth place with 95.
On an individual level, Jeremy Doku (29) dominates this category, while Romelu Lukaku, third (23), is ahead of Mbappe, fourth (21). It is worth noting that the Belgian striker has yet to open his account despite taking 10 shots, the second-highest total behind the 12 attempts of Cristiano Ronaldo, who is also yet to score in this edition of the competition.
In the end, Les Bleus had the widest negative differential between goals and expected goals (-3.9 - meaning they 'should' have scored four more goals), while the Red Devils had the third widest (-2.3). Deschamps and Belgium's coach Domenico Tedesco therefore know where to focus their efforts between now and 18:00 CET on Monday.
All calm at the back
While neither side's attacking play is yet up to scratch, things are looking a little more settled at the back. With two clean sheets each, only Spain with three are better, and just one goal conceded, the defences have shown some promise. Even if they were not put to the test, it must be said.
The shots taken by France and Belgium's opponents had an expected goals value of 2.4 and 2.3 respectively, among the five lowest totals of the first round of this tournament.
Most of the action from Deschamps and Tedesco's men was concentrated in the middle of the pitch. France stood out in particular for their good head-to-head record, winning 59% of their one-on-ones during the group phase. That's the best ratio, well ahead of Belgium who are in 11th place at 51%. The latter showed its ability to keep possession of the ball, posting the third-best ratio at 59%.
The wings were particularly busy, especially on the French side, allowing the full-backs, who had little to do in defence, to extend themselves into attack. As a result, 79% of France's attacks came from either the left (42%) or the right (37%) rather than from central areas.
Jules Kounde was very attacking on the right flank, completing five final passes before a shot in the first round, the third-best total for a defender. But he was sorely lacking in success, as evidenced by his eight crosses in the game, none of which found a teammate.
A battle to break the lines
The key may lie in the midfield and its ability to break down the opposition's well-established lines. The French will have to keep a close eye on De Bruyne, who racked up 11 assists in qualifying, a total surpassed only by Joshua Kimmich (13). Not far behind is Tielemans (6) in fifth place, just behind a certain Mbappe (7).
One connection, in particular, to watch out for on the Belgian side is that between their captain and Doku. De Bruyne made a record five passes from his Manchester City teammate, breaking defensive lines.
And proving, as we said, the attacking contribution of the French full-backs, the next most is from Mbappe with four passes breaking the defensive line to Theo Hernandez (as well as four from Tielemans to Timothy Castagne). As you can see, the focus on both sides is out wide.
Things will certainly come down to the fine details, and it could well be that the match to come goes beyond the 90 minutes. In this respect, France will have the experience of extra time on their side. They have played in 15 of them in major tournaments, more than twice as many as Belgium (6).
But Les Bleus have been eliminated on penalties four times, including three under Deschamps. Let's hope for their sake that this time they'll go through on penalties - if it is needed.