Hack the Weekend: Surprises to look out for in Czech, Norwegian and Dutch top tiers
That's why Flashscore, in cooperation with a team of analysts from Czech data company 11Hacks, is bringing you a data-driven overview every Friday about where those (un)expected results might occur in the wide world of football to help you ultimately hack the weekend.
Bohemians - Karvina, Saturday 18:00 CET
The players of the currently ninth-placed Bohemians don't have to leave Prague for the third week in a row. In the last two rounds, Jaroslav Vesely's team played against both Slavia and Sparta and lost 2-0 both times.
In the 15th round of the Czech first league, the Green and Whites will welcome the 12th-placed Karvina to their home. Although Karvina are no title contenders, and the bookmakers clearly favour the home side, the data models suggest that it should be at least an even encounter.
A good indicator of the current performance of both teams is the data metric of expected points. This tracks the quality and volume of goal-scoring opportunities created and allowed throughout the season and then calculates how likely the teams were to struggle. Both Bohemians and Karvina are currently expected to have 16 points. Their offences have been completely identical so far, creating an average of exactly one expected goal per game.
That is not so impressive. To give you an idea - Nottingham Forest in the English Premier League, Cadiz in LaLiga or even Mainz in the Bundesliga are similar in terms of quality of chances. Karvina can be credited for its efficiency in finishing, as they have scored 17 goals from 14 expected goals (excluding penalties), while Bohemians have scored only 11 times.
According to the metric of expected goals allowed, Karvina has the second-worst defensive record in the league, but their opponent is not much better. Karvina allow 1.48 expected goals per game, Bohemians allow 1.29.
One of the big themes of this match is the fact that both defences are being held together by a pair (or trio) of very good goalkeepers. Both Michal Reichl and Martin Jedlicka on one side and Dominik Holec on the other are among the best goalkeepers of the current season and their saves have already prevented a lot of goals from being scored.
Bohemians will rely mainly on crosses in the final third, from which they create the vast majority of their chances, while Karvina's plan will be to collect second balls and launch quick counterattacks from a deep block.
The Silesian side are the third most active team in the league in terms of the number of counterattacks per game and they are also very effective in these situations - only Sparta, Slavia, Mlada Boleslav and Liberec have created more dangerous chances from breakaways. They could well spring a surprise on the weekend.
Viking - Sarpsborg 08, Sunday 17:00 CET
The 2023 edition of the Norwegian Eliteserien is rapidly coming to a close. With just three rounds to go, it is virtually certain that last year's champion Molde will be replaced by Bodo/Glimt, but the battle for the remaining two European places is still open.
Brann, Tromso and Viking all have their eyes on qualifying for the Europa Conference League, with the latter two points behind the coveted third place. At the end of September, Viking's prospects were much rosier, but they have only gained a single point in the last five rounds.
They will try to reverse their misery against seventh-placed Sarpsborg. Coach Stefan Billborn's charges may have lost their chance of winning the title a long time ago but they are certainly not an easy opponent to play against.
In terms of the expected goals metric, Sarpsborg are the league's second-best offence. With 51 expected goals (1.9 per game), they have scored the same number of goals from open play. Only Bodo/Glimt are better, currently at 2.1 xG per 90 minutes.
Moreover, Sarpsborg should enter the clash at full strength, not counting any possible rotation of the squad. Viking, on the other hand, have been missing key stopper David Brekalo in three of their last four games, resulting in eight goals conceded, including three against 12th-placed HamKam.
Brekalo's possible absence would be a big loss not only from a defensive perspective, but it would also disrupt the team's passing game. The Slovenian international is one of the league's best ball players. Even if he does end up on the pitch, the quality of the defences of both teams are comparable.
Utrecht - Excelsior, Sunday 20:00 CET
Utrecht fans are having a terrible season so far. Last season's seventh-placed team in the Eredivisie is not doing well at all and after the 11th round, they are second from last in the league table. However, their performances are not that bad and according to the important data metrics, they should be better off and up in the middle of the table.
Over time, Utrecht should emerge out of the relegation zone, although it will probably take a while given the relatively difficult short-term draw. Excelsior may not be among the league's elite, but their current seventh place is certainly justified.
Out of the 18 participants in the Dutch top flight, the team from Rotterdam is ninth in terms of the quality of both chances created and chances allowed.
After two league losses, the team was buoyed by a 1-1 home draw with Alkmaar, which was well deserved and supported by a great defensive performance.
Utrecht's offence hasn't been up to the task, and while the Rotterdam side maintains an average of roughly 1.4 expected goals per game, the home side is third worst in the league behind Waalwijk and Fortuna Sittard with 1.1.
For all these reasons, it should at least be an evenly-fought match and the away side could spring a surprise.