Hack the weekend: Chelsea, Anderlecht and Slovacko all facing tricky challenges
That's why Flashscore, in cooperation with a team of analysts from Czech data company 11Hacks, is bringing you a data-driven overview every Friday about where those (un)expected results might occur in the wide world of football to help you ultimately hack the weekend.
Chelsea - Brentford, Saturday 13:30 CET
Those who visit Stamford Bridge on Saturday will be treated to a much higher quality spectacle than the current position of both these teams in the Premier League table would suggest.
The West London derby between Chelsea and Brentford may be a clash between the 10th and 14th teams in the standings but by the metric of expected points, a measure of the quality of both chances created and chances allowed (excluding penalties), both teams should be in the top five in the league.
The results in this analytical 'truth table' are currently very condensed and there is only a two-point gap between third and tenth place, but it still reveals a lot about the strength of each team.
In the case of Chelsea and Brentford, it highlights the strength of their defences in particular. The home side have the third-best behind only Manchester City and Arsenal, with Brentford currently fifth. In numbers, they allow, respectively, just 0.97 and 1.12 expected goals per game.
The volume and quality of chances created by both teams on the pitch are also virtually identical. Chelsea are currently on 1.65 xG per game with Brentford on 1.68. Thomas Frank's team rely mainly on Bryan Mbeumo in the offensive department, who is ably supported by Yoane Wissa in shooting from good positions.
Blues' boss Mauricio Pochettino, on the other hand, has made some very positive changes to his side in the last few games. Enzo Fernandez has moved from the number 10 position to a double pivot alongside Moises Caicedo, while Conor Gallagher has moved in the opposite direction, which allows Chelsea to make much better use of all the skills of these two great footballers. In addition, youngster Cole Palmer has started to play regularly and was even seen higher up the pitch than Raheem Sterling against Arsenal.
However, it will be a while before Chelsea start functioning like a well-oiled machine and they will be up against a very good defence this weekend. The Blues' strengths are their fast counterattacks, which Brentford are among the league's top sides at defending, having conceded the second-fewest goals (only two).
Moreover, Frank's charges will also be tricky up front. Their main weapon of choice is their brilliantly executed offensive set pieces, which Chelsea defend only mediocrely. By all indicators, this match will be more even than the bookmakers are predicting.
Slovacko - Liberec, Saturday 15:00 CET
Liberec provided the biggest surprise of the last round in the Czech league when they shocked the fancied Plzen with a 3-0 win at home. Moreover, that was after a performance that was deserving of such a result. Although Plzen was slightly better positionally, they failed to translate their territorial superiority into a sufficient number of dangerous chances. Liberec, on the other hand, had no problems with that and won the contents 2.79-1.03 on the expected goals count.
In terms of real goals conceded, Liberec is not in the best position and, if penalties are subtracted, only five other teams have more goals. However, this is also largely due to a certain amount of bad luck and the shaky performances of goalkeeper Oliver Vliegen. However, Plzen proved that creating chances against Liberec is not that easy.
In terms of the volume and quality of scoring opportunities allowed, Liberec has currently the fourth-best defence in the league, with an average of 0.9 xGA. Slovacko is one position lower with 0.98 and Saturday's clash will be about who can find the better recipe in the final third. Even there, both teams are as similar as can be with 1.2 xG created.
Moreover, both teams rely heavily on counterattacks and while Slovacko will want to control the game in front of their own fans, Liberec will probably not deviate too much from their usual way of playing. That suits them because the hosts don't do well against such teams.
Anderlecht - Leuven, Saturday 20:45 CET
Both these teams are separated by a gaping 10 positions in the table, although based on their performances they should be in much closer contact. Anderlecht are in second place in the Jupiler Pro League table after finishing 11th last season but they could be unpleasantly surprised in the next round of the competition. What's more, they are facing a rather difficult draw right until Christmas.
The Belgian giants are failing to dominate offensively, where a huge portion of the responsibility falls on summer signing Kasper Dolberg. The Danish international accounts for almost 50% of Anderlecht's total xG, an unprecedented share. If he's not doing well, there aren't too many ways for them to score goals.
Both Anders Dreyer and Francis Amuzu are more creative wingers and don't get enough chances from central areas. Anderlecht are averaging 1.29 expected goals per game, far behind Genk (2.00), Union Saint-Gilloise (1.94) or Brugge (1.79).
They also aren't the best defensively, which should be helped in the future by the recent arrival of goalkeeper Kasper Schmeichel. However, the team is currently producing almost identical results to Leuven in the metrics of expected goals created and allowed, expected points and even shots. Therefore, losing points this weekend would not be that shocking, especially after their last loss to Standard Liege, which was Anderlecht's third in the last five games.