Key analysis: Group D outsiders Australia look to defy the odds
It will be the sixth time the country has participated in the World Cup finals. After first playing at the tournament in 1974, they have been to all of the last four editions (2006, 2010, 2014 and 2018) demonstrating the stability of their football on an international level in recent times.
In their last three appearances, however, Australia has fallen out in the first round, indicating a certain stagnation.
After the high of qualifying for and then impressing at the 2006 World Cup where Australia’s own Golden Generation ignited footballing interest in the country and inspired the population with a journey to the knockout phases, there have been slim signs of further footballing advancement in their following World Cup showings.
In fact, their 2010 group-stage win over Serbia was the last time Australia won a World Cup match. They lost all three games at Brazil in 2014 and came away from Russia in 2018 with just one point.
Their upcoming trip to Qatar can be celebrated for what it is - another appearance in the finals. However, the Australian public was hardly roused by their rocky qualification campaign and the limitations of coach Graham Arnold’s side. As such, there isn’t much expected of these Socceroos.
They confirmed their spot in Qatar after dispatching Peru in the intercontinental playoff on penalties, thanks in large part to the dancing heroics of reserve goalkeeper Andrew Redmayne (33).
They reached that match by beating the UAE in a one-off playoff to secure fifth place out of Asia. That followed Australia placing third in its AFC qualifying group, one point ahead of Oman and behind group leaders Saudi Arabia and Japan. In that stage, Australia were beaten by Japan twice, lost to and drew with Saudi Arabia, and drew away at Oman and China.
Hardly inspiring results but as they say, all’s well that ends well. And all that matters now for the Aussies is that they are at the World Cup but their route to the tournament gives you some context as to where this side sits in the pecking order of world football. They are not one of the better teams from Asia and have really just scraped their way into this tournament.
Strengths
Arnold doesn’t have access to the depth and quality of players that previous Australian coaches have had in years gone by. The likes of Tim Cahill, Jason Culina, Harry Kewell and Mark Bresciano cast long shadows behind them. They do have some handy players, though, and a fresh young group.
One thing that Australia has consistently produced over the years is quality goalkeepers and captain Mathew Ryan (30) of FC Copenhagen will be key to any success they may have. He could well be busy at the tournament, too. Ahead of him, the defence isn’t packed with household names but Australia do have two promising young centre backs in the towering Harry Souttar (24) and Kye Rowles (24).
Souttar, of Stoke City, is interestingly one of three players in the squad who were actually born and raised born in Scotland. Rowles, of Hearts, isn’t one of them but is one of three Hearts players called up and one of an incredible seven players from the Scottish Premier League.
Midfield is where their strengths really lie, however. Aaron Mooy (32), Ajdin Hrustic (26) and Jackson Irvine (29) form a combative and energetic midfield trio. Mooy, the holding midfielder, has the range of passing to make an impact on games and he will be the pivot in this side. Irvine is a willing box-to-box runner and Hrustic has that little bit of creative ability to unlock defences on his day.
Weaknesses
In a word: scoring. Where the team really lacks is in the final third. The wide midfielders/forwards don’t offer much of a goal threat and if the team is out of possession for long periods (as they could well be) those players are likely to drop deeper and deeper. That means that the number 9 in Australia’s single-striker system can become quite isolated.
Since the retirement of Cahill, they have struggled to identify someone to reliably take on the goalscoring responsibilities. Mitchell Duke (31), Jamie Maclaren (29) and Jason Cummings (27) will be shooting out for the striker’s berth with neither of them yet to fully stamp their authority on the role. Arnold favours Duke for his hold-up play and that could be crucial for Australia in attacking transitions.
The Socceroos have a relatively inexperienced squad - 10 of the members have just five caps or fewer. Arnold made the headlines for leaving out some experienced players - most notably, his own son-in-law and former captain Trent Sainsbury (30) - favouring more youthful outsiders in his selection instead.
The biggest bolter is forward Garang Kuol (18) (one of three players in the squad of South Sudanese descent), who has just one cap to his name and recently signed a contract with Newcastle United.
While they do look a bit green, the Socceroos' inexperience could equally be construed as a positive. No one is expecting anything from this team at home or abroad and so the tournament is a free hit of sorts. It’s a fantastic opportunity for players like Kuol to develop and potentially shine.
Ideal XI
Ryan - Atkinson, Souttar, Rowles, Behich - Mooy - Boyle, Irvine, Hrustic, Leckie - Duke
Australia have played a mixture of 4-1-4-1 and 4-3-3 systems in recent times and the two systems aren’t a million miles apart. Either way, they’ll play with a classic back four, three midfielders in some configuration, one striker and two wide players.
They are expected to line up in a 4-1-4-1 formation where the holding midfielder (Mooy) and the four players in front of him turn into a bank of five when they are out of possession.
The advantage of this structure is that they can be a difficult team to break down and that’s exactly what they will be aiming for against the likes of France and Denmark. Expect the Socceroos to sit quite deep and defend compactly in those games.
The disadvantage of their system is that, as mentioned, Australia can have quite an isolated striker at times. It will be crucial for Irvine and Hrustic (the two number eights in midfield) to become involved in attacks, as well as for the wide players to cut infield effectively if they are to have any joy going forward.
Hottest contest
There has been quite a lot of tinkering with the lineup by Arnold of late and a couple of the inclusions in the squad were quite surprising in so far as some of the players were not involved in the qualifying campaign. While the core group remains the same, it’s not completely obvious who will start the first match against France.
The most competitive parts of the pitch in terms of open positions are out wide and upfront. As suggested, Maclaren, Duke and Cummings will be vying for the striker’s role, whoever first impresses has a chance to claim it at the tournament.
As for the wingers, Martin Boyle (29) looks to have nailed his name to the right side while the left side is a bit more open. Matthew Leckie (31), Awer Mabil (27) and Craig Goodwin (30) can all do that job.
Expect to see Kuol making an impact off the bench anywhere across the forward line. He’s young, exciting and talented - he’s everything that Australia haven’t had in recent times and he’s everything they now need.
Prediction: Group stage exit
Australia are in a pretty tricky group considering their ability. France and Denmark are elite teams and both sides could go quite deep in the tournament. Holders France are a tournament favourite and Denmark have been one of the most improved sides in Europe in recent years.
Unfortunately, with both of them in the group, Australia is essentially playing Tunisia for third place. Tunisia are a higher-ranked side and so Australia will be going into even that match as the underdog. It’s reasonable for Australia to shoot for a win against the Africans but a draw seems more realistic.
Australia will very likely bow out at the group stage in this tournament as they have done in their previous three appearances. A single win along the way would be a great result although even just some encouraging performances would be a sufficiently positive takeaway for this young side.
If, against the odds, Australia can sneak a draw against one of the two European teams in the group and then beat Tunisia, they could find themselves advancing to the next stage where they would meet a member of Group C - probably one of Poland, Mexico, or Argentina. It’s an unlikely but exciting scenario.
In summary, Australia is one of the weakest teams to make it to Qatar. The expectations are thus quite low. The upshot of that is that there is absolutely no pressure on this team to do anything other than express themselves and do their nation proud, as I’m sure they will.