Nielsen's Gracenote predicts United States to win third straight World Cup

The Americans' chances of claiming their fifth victory overall are only 18%. Sweden, Germany, France and England are the main contenders, with a 58% chance the winner will come from this quintet.

Gracenote's forecast, based on approximately one million simulations of the tournament, gave Olympic silver medallists and third-ranked Sweden the second best chance of winning (11%).

"Our simulations confirm that World Cup 2023 is likely to be a very open and competitive tournament," said Gracenote's head of analysis Simon Gleave.

"There is a strong challenge to champions and favourites USA from Europe and Australia's home advantage has boosted them to the seventh most likely team to win the competition."

Germany (11%), France (9%), European champions England (8%), Spain (8%), Australia (8%), Brazil (7%) and reigning Olympic champions Canada (6%) round out the favourites.

The eight most likely quarter-finalists are Spain, the U.S., France, Germany, Sweden, England, Japan and Australia in that order, while the most likely semi-finalists are the U.S., Sweden, Germany and France.

The most likely World Cup final is the U.S. v Germany at just under 6%, with the U.S. v France, England, Australia and Brazil - in that order - rounding out the top five most likely finals.